Will It Rain Less Or More In This Monsoon Season? Meteorological Department Told Its Estimate

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Rainfall in Monsoon: This monsoon season in the country is expected to rain more than the earlier estimates. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) gave this information on Tuesday, which has raised hopes of containing abundant agricultural production and inflation. IMD Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra said, “The average rainfall in this monsoon season is likely to be 103 percent of the long period average.”

The IMD had said in April that the country would receive normal rainfall which would be 99 per cent of the long period average, which is the average rainfall received over the 50-year period from 1971-2020. The long-term average for the entire country is 87 cm.

These are the areas affected by monsoon
Mohapatra said the monsoon-affected regions – states from Gujarat to Odisha that are dependent on rainfall for agriculture – are expected to have normal rainfall of more than 106 per cent of the long period average. He said that there is a possibility of above normal rainfall in central India and south peninsula, while there is a possibility of normal rain in the north-east and north-west regions. This is the fourth consecutive year that India is likely to experience a normal monsoon. Earlier, normal monsoon was observed in India in 2005-08 and 2010-13.

Mohapatra said that India may see normal monsoon in the near future as the decade of below normal rainfall is about to end. “We are now moving towards a normal monsoon era,” he said.

Said this on the monsoon of Kerala
Asked about the IMD’s criticism of “hasty” in announcing the onset of monsoon in Kerala, Mohapatra said the Met Office followed a scientific process to announce the onset and progress of monsoon. He stressed that 70 per cent of the weather stations in Kerala had reported fairly widespread rainfall and met other criteria related to strong westerly winds and cloud formation in the region.

,la nina, Conditions expected to continue till August,
Mohapatra said the current ‘La Nina’ conditions are expected to continue till August and augurs well for monsoon rains in India. ‘La Nia’ conditions refer to the cooling of the equatorial Pacific. However, there is a possibility of development of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole which may cause below normal rainfall over the far southwest peninsula including Kerala. Mohapatra said the maximum temperature in June is likely to remain below normal in most parts of the country except Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Uttarakhand and Arunachal Pradesh.

,There will be good rainfall in most parts of the country,
Releasing the updated Long Term Forecast for the current monsoon season, Mohapatra said, “There will be good rainfall over most parts of the country”. 106 percent can be expected, while the north-eastern region may receive less than normal rainfall.

The IMD had announced on 29 May that the Southwest Monsoon reached Kerala on Sunday, three days before its normal scheduled time on June 1.

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